Convince

我會試著說服大家

I’l l try to convince you

Fundamental

我想其中一個原因 ──我會試著說服大家── 就是我們對於時間的力量 有著徹底的誤解。

Now, I think one of the reasons -- I'll try to convince you today — is that we have a fundamental misconception about the power of time.

Misconception

我想其中一個原因 ──我會試著說服大家── 就是我們對於時間的力量 有著徹底的誤解。

Now, I think one of the reasons -- I'll try to convince you today — is that we have a fundamental misconception about the power of time.

Gallop

但人生那神奇的一刻叫什麼？ 改變的速度突然 從飛速變龜速的那一刻？

But what is the name of this magical point in life where change suddenly goes from a gallop to a crawl?

Crawl

但人生那神奇的一刻叫什麼？ 改變的速度突然 從飛速變龜速的那一刻？

But what is the name of this magical point in life where change suddenly goes from a gallop to a crawl ?

Illusion

我今天想說服各位的是， 所有人都身在一種錯覺中。What I want to convince you today is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,

Underestimated

我們數據中的每一個年齡， 從 18 到 68 歲， 大家都大大低估了 接下來十年會經歷的改變有多少。 At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set, people vastly underestimated how much change they would experience over the next 10 years.

Anticipate

讓我說明這會影響的範圍。 兩條線連起來， 你看到的是 18 歲的人 對改變的預期 跟 50 歲的人真正經歷的改變一樣。To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect, you can connect these two lines, and what you see here is that 18-year-olds anticipate changing only as much as 50-year-olds actually do.

Extraversion

很多人都知道心理學家現在聲稱 有五大性格特質： 情緒不穩定性、經驗開放性、 友善性、外向性、嚴謹性。Many of you know that psychologists now claim that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality: neuroticism, openness to experience, agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.

Conscientiousness

很多人都知道心理學家現在聲稱 有五大性格特質： 情緒不穩定性、經驗開放性、 友善性、外向性、嚴謹性。Many of you know that psychologists now claim that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality: neuroticism, openness to experience, agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.

Ephemeral

不只是短暫的東西， 像價值觀、個性等， 還可以問問人們的好惡， 基本的喜好。And it isn't just ephemeral things like values and personality. . You can ask people about their likes and dislikes, their basic preferences.

Diagram

這個表會一直出現， 因為再次地，改變的速度 的確隨年齡增長而變慢， 但在每一個年紀，人們都低估了 接下來的十年 他們的個性會有多少改變。you're going to get used to seeing this diagram over and over, because once again the rate of change does slow as we age, but at every age, people underestimate how much their personalities will change in the next decade

Preferences

不只是短暫的東西， 像價值觀、個性等， 還可以問問人們的好惡， 基本的喜好。And it isn't just ephemeral things like values and personality. You can ask people about their likes and dislikes, their basic preferences.

Predict

請一半的人預測 接下來十年，他們的 價值觀會有多少改變， 請另一半的人說 過去十年，他們的 價值觀改變多少。 We asked half of them to predict for us how much their values would change in the next 10 years, and the others to tell us how much their values had changed in the last 10 years.

Current

在一個完全理性的世界， 這兩個答案應該要是相同的， 但我們多付了錢 去享受我們目前的喜好， 因為我們高估了自己的穩定性。Now, in a perfectly rational world, these should be the same number, but we overpay for the opportunity to indulge our current preferences because we overestimate their stability.

Rational

在一個完全理性的世界， 這兩個答案應該要是相同的， 但我們多付了錢 去享受我們目前的喜好， 因為我們高估了自己的穩定性。Now, in a perfectly rational world, these should be the same number, but we overpay for the opportunity to indulge our current preferences because we overestimate their stability.

Indulge

在一個完全理性的世界， 這兩個答案應該要是相同的， 但我們多付了錢 去享受我們目前的喜好， 因為我們高估了自己的穩定性。Now, in a perfectly rational world, these should be the same number, but we overpay for the opportunity to indulge our current preferences because we overestimate their stability.

Overestimate

在一個完全理性的世界， 這兩個答案應該要是相同的， 但我們多付了錢 去享受我們目前的喜好， 因為我們高估了自己的穩定性。Now, in a perfectly rational world, these should be the same number, but we overpay for the opportunity to indulge our current preferences because we overestimate their stability.

深深

說服

徹底的

誤解

飛速

龜速