Font size
WorksheetsEvidence based reasoning: evidence
Total questions: 26
Worksheet time: 2hrs 10mins
Belief A: there is no fire in my apartment
Belief B: there is a fire in my apartment
New evidence: the fire alarm is ringing
What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?
A became more likely, B less likely
B became more likely, A less likely
both A,B became more likely
both A,B became less likely
Belief A: there is no fire in my apartment
Belief B: there is a fire in my apartment
New evidence: the fire alarm is ringing, but the fire alarm often rings without a fire
What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?
A became more likely, B less likely
B became more likely, A less likely
both A,B became more likely
both A,B became less likely
Belief A: there is not a fire in my apartment
Belief B: there is a fire in my apartment
New evidence: the fire alarm is not ringing
What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?
A became more likely, B less likely
B became more likely, A less likely
both A,B became more likely
both A,B became less likely
Belief A: there is a small fire in my apartment
Belief B: there is a big fire in my apartment
New evidence: the fire alarm is ringing
What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?
A became more likely, B less likely
B became more likely, A less likely
both A,B became more likely
both A,B became less likely
Belief A: Johny is vegetarian
Belief B: Johny is a vegan
New evidence: Johny buys a Weisswurst
What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?
A became more likely, B less likely
B became more likely, A less likely
both A,B became more likely
both A,B became less likely
Belief A: Johny is vegetarian
Belief B: Johny is not a vegetarian
New evidence: Johny buys a vegan salad which is 40% more expensive than non-vegan salad
What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?
A became more likely, B less likely
B became more likely, A less likely
both A,B became more likely
both A,B became less likely
Fact: I already know Johny doesn't eat meat.
Belief A: Johny is vegetarian
Belief B: Johny is a vegan (also doesn't eat milk,cheese&eggs)
New evidence: Johny buys a vegan salad which is 40% more expensive than a non-vegan salad
What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?
A became more likely, B less likely
B became more likely, A less likely
both A,B became more likely
both A,B became less likely
Belief A: Germany will go to war with Syria
Belief B: Germany will stay out of the conflict with Syria
New evidence: Germany just bought new fighter airplanes
What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?
A became more likely, B less likely
B became more likely, A less likely
both A,B became more likely
both A,B became less likely
other / no change
Belief A: Germany will go to war with Syria
Belief B: Germany will try to actively prevent a war happening in Syria
New evidence: Germany sent military experts to other countries involved in the conflict
What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?
A became more likely, B less likely
B became more likely, A less likely
both A,B became more likely
both A,B became less likely
other / no change
Belief A: Vegetables are good for you
Belief B: Vegetables are good for you, but not the ones from The Netherlands
New evidence: Italian tomatoes make you more healthy
What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?
A became more likely, B less likely
B became more likely, A less likely
both A,B became more likely
both A,B became less likely
other / no change
Belief A: Vegetables are good for you
Belief B: Vegetables are good for you, but not the ones from The Netherlands
New evidence: Dutch onions make you healthy
What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?
A became more likely, B less likely
B became more likely, A less likely
both A,B became more likely
both A,B became less likely
other / no change
Regarding a piece of evidence E on a claim C, which of the following statements are correct?
if E is strong evidence in favor of C, I should believe C much more strongly than I did before
if E is weak evidence in favor of C, then I should believe C less than I did before
if E is strong evidence against C, I should partially revert my belief
weak evidence against C is qualitatively the same as strong evidence in favor of C
I should only change my belief in C if E is absolutely certain
Regarding evidence E towards a claim C, which of the following statements is true?
strong evidence in favor of C should change my mind more than weak evidence in favor of C
E not clearly in favor of C should change my mind less than when E is clearly in favor of C
when E is weak and not clearly in favor or against C, then we shouldn't have it change our minds a lot
if E is weak evidence, then it is evidence against C
Claim: Most birds can fly over distances exceeding 10km. Which of the following (if true), would provide evidence that's clearly in favor of this claim? Select all that apply.
most birds are large
many bird species migrate over the Atlantic Ocean
the maximum speed of most birds is higher than 40 km/h
the nests of birds is typically several km from where they get their food
Claim: The gluten in bread is bad for you. Which of the following (if true), would provide evidence that's clearly in favor of this claim? Select all that apply.
bread isn't a natural product
our ancestors in prehistory didn't eat bread
people that eat bread are overweight twice as often
my parents want me to eat bread, but they know very little about nutrition
the bread industry all wants us to eat more bread, but doesn't care about our health
Claim: Criminals are almost always men around 30 years of age. Which of the following (if true), would provide evidence that's clearly in favor of this claim? Select all that apply.
criminals on the news systematically fit that description
men around the age of 30 have much more difficulty finding legal work than other socio-economic groups
a typical prisoner is male and ca. 30 years old
when men become much older than 30, they marry and get kids
when you think of a criminal, you think of a 30 year old man
Claim: Smartphone usage makes us anxious. Which of the following (if true), would provide evidence that's clearly in favor of this claim? Select all that apply.
every time, after I go to Facebook, my muscles get really stiff and tense
many people that I see around me are anxious
smartphone apps are designed to be addictive
when I was a young kid (so long before I got a smartphone), I was much less anxious
Claim: Radiation from phones (during calling etc.) causes cancer at a high rate. Which of the following (if true), would provide evidence that's clearly in favor of this claim? Select all that apply.
the people that call frequently also have cancer more often
measurement devices that measure radiation can detect electromagnetic radiation coming from phones
phones are banned in some schools
the places where people get tumors coincides with the place they held their phones
many articles have been written since the 90s that measure the effect of phone-usage on cancer
Claim: The Tora is the true word of God. Which of the following (if true), would provide evidence that's clearly in favor of this claim? Select all that apply.
miracles have been reliably recorded that cannot be explained by current science
people that don't follow the Tora, cheat on their partners [sind untreu] more often
the Tora is a source of hope and inspiration for millions of Jews around the world
the Tora correctly predicted the precise dates of the ten most recent economic crashes
the Tora has been around for thousands of years and was never changed
Claim: Social democracy is the best political system humanity has come up with of so far. Which of the following (if true), would provide evidence that's clearly in favor of this claim? Select all that apply.
people in social democracies are the happiest
my parents raised me to live my life by the foundational principles of humanism
Germany's constitution clearly aligns with the principles of social democracy
social democracy is the final result of thousands of years of civilization
all countries that I can think of that are not 'good', are not social democracies
Claim: The lessons I get in school are the biggest source of education I currently get in my life.
Provide as many pieces of evidence (which you believe to be accurate) that you can think of in favor of this claim.
Claim: The lessons I get in school are the biggest source of education I currently get in my life.
Provide as many pieces of evidence (which you believe to be accurate) that you can think of against of this claim.
Claim: All swans are white. Rank the evidence in favor of this claim by strength: 1: when I think of a swan, it's white, 2: all swans my friend has ever seen are white, 3: my school textbook on biology only shows white swans, 4: a recent scientific article on it says no black swans have been ever recorded. Write you answer as e.g. 4,3,2,1 (4=strongest evidence, 1=weakest evidence)
(a)
Claim: Americans drink more beer than Germans do. Rank the evidence in favor of this claim by strength: 1: alcoholism occurs at a higher rate in the USA than here, 2: of all the people I see in Munich, people from the USA drink way more beer than Germans, 3: on average, more beer is produced in the USA than here, 4: on average, more beer is sold in the USA than here.
(a)
Claim: You can't objectively say which art is better -- beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Rank the evidence against this claim by strength: 1: when polling people, their preferences usually are the same across history and cultures, 2: the neoclassical theory of art not only shows beauty is objective, it even shows how beauty can be defined, 3: everyone I know has exactly the same 5 favorite musicians, 4: The idea that "beauty is in the eye of the beholder" was started by violent socialists in the 19th century.
(a)
Claim: Criminals are almost always men around 30 years of age. Rank the evidence in favor of this claim by strength: 1: criminals on the news systematically fit that description, 2: men around the age of 30 have much more difficulty finding legal work than other socio-economic groups, 3: a typical prisoner is male and ca. 30 years old, 4: when you think of a criminal, you think of a 30 year old man.
(a)
