Theoretical and Experimental Probability

Theoretical and Experimental Probability

Multiple Choice

Just to review: Probability can be written as ...

• a fraction

• a decimal

• a percent

• all of the above

What is probability?

• Probability is how likely something will occur

• Think of probability of the chance something can or cannot happen

Remember: Probability is the chance something will happen on a scale from 0 to 1.

How to read the probability scale:

• Impossible (0%): something cannot occur

• Unlikely: there is a small percentage of occuring

• Even Chance (50%): there is a 50% chance it can occur and 50% it cannot

• Likely: there more of a chance something occurring than not

• Certain (100%): it will happen

Multiple Choice

A likely chance event is closer to what number?

• 0

• 1

• .5

• 100

Theoretical vs Experimental Probability

Theoretical: is calculating the probability of it happening, what should happen. 
ex. If you flip a coin six times, it should land on  heads  $\frac{1}{2}$   , 1 out of 2, or 50% of the time. 

Experimental: is the results of an experiment, what did happen.
ex. you flip and coin and see how many times it lands on heads.

Multiple Choice

Experimental Probability is:

• What Will happen

• What actually happens

• What should happen

• What I think Happens

Multiple Choice

Theoretical Probability is?

• What Should happen

• What does happen

• What Will Happen

• What I want to Happen

Multiple Choice

What is the theoretical probability of the spinner landing on yellow?

• 1/4

• 1/2

• 1/3

• 2/3

Theoretical Probability

If you and 7 friends were playing Among Us (8 total players) the theoretical probability of being imposter would be  $\frac{1}{8}$   or 12.5%. So, if you played 8 games you would expect to be imposter 1 time.

Experimental Probability

If you played 8 games and were the imposter 3 times then your experimental probability would be  $\frac{3}{8}$  or 37.5%. 

Theoretical and Experimental Probability

- they can be equal or they can be different

In the example before, you were imposter 3 times which is higher than expected of only 1 time. However, you could play 8 games and never be an imposter, thus, having an experimental probability less than the theoretical.

Multiple Choice

Find the theoretical probability of NOT landing on yellow if you spin the spinner.

• 1/8
• 7/8
• 1
• 7

Multiple Choice

Dustin has a spinner that is divided into
5 equal-size sections colored red, blue, orange, white, and green. What is the probability that Dustin spins pink on the next spin?

• 0
• 0.25
• 0.5
• 0.75

Multiple Choice

What is the theoretical probability of randomly picking a Purple marble from Molly's Sack of Marbles?

• 4/5

• 3/15

• 2/15

• 8/21

Multiple Choice

Based on the chart, what is the experimental probability of pulling a green marble?

• 12.5%

• 32%

• 8%

• 80%

Multiple Choice

A bag contains 5 quarters, 2 dimes, and 4 pennies. What is the probability of picking a quarter?

• 5/11

• 5/6

• 1/3

• 5

Multiple Choice

A bag contains 5 quarters, 2 dimes, and 4 pennies. What is the probability of picking a quarter?

• 5/11

• 5/6

• 1/3

• 5

Open Ended

Please give me feedback on the lesson. Did you like how it broke it down more? What changes would you like?