Theoretical Vs. Experimental Probability

Theoretical Vs. Experimental Probability

Multiple Choice

Just to review: Probability can be written as ...

• a fraction

• a decimal

• a percent

• all of the above

What is probability?

• Probability is how likely something will occur.

• Think of probability of the chance something can or cannot happen.

Remember:

• Probability is the chance something will happen on a scale from 0 to 1.

  
  

  
  

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How to read the probability scale:

• Impossible (0%): something cannot occur

• Unlikely: there is a small percentage of occurring

• Even Chance (50%): there is a 50% chance it can occur and 50% it cannot

• Likely: there more of a chance something occurring than not

• Certain (100%): it will happen

Multiple Choice

A likely chance event is closer to what number?

• 0

• 1

• 0.5

• 100

Theoretical vs Experimental Probability

Theoretical: is calculating the probability of it happening, what should happen. 
ex. If you flip a coin six times, it should land on heads   $\frac{1}{2}$   , 1 out of 2, or 50% of the time. 

Experimental: is the results of an experiment, what did happen.
ex. you flip and coin and see how many times it lands on heads.

Multiple Choice

Experimental Probability is:

• What Will happen

• What actually happens

• What should happen

• What I think Happens

Multiple Choice

Theoretical Probability is?

• What Should happen

• What does happen

• What Will Happen

• What I want to Happen

Multiple Choice

Twelve candies are selected from a bag of Skittles. The results are shown in the table below. Using this experimental data, Samuel predicts that in a bag of 100 candies, 40 would be orange. How does his prediction compare to the experimental data below?

• His prediction and experimental data match.

• His prediction was lower than his experimental data.

• His prediction was higher than his experimental data.

Multiple Choice

Sam has cards numbered 16 – 30 in a bag. He pulls one card without looking and replaces after each pull. What is the theoretical probability that he pulls a number lower than 20?

• 4/15

• 1/5

• 4/17

• 17/20