The Nuclear Threat- North Korea and Iran

The Nuclear Threat- North Korea and Iran

What is the threat?

• In 1945, the US dropped two atomic bombs on Japan, in Hiroshima and Nagasaki

• The threat of nuclear war has been ever-present since this time

The Cold War

At the height of the Cold War (between the US and the USSR) there were 68 000 nuclear warheads in the world, which were enough to destroy the world many times over. According to many experts, the world was very lucky to survive the Cold War without a major nuclear catastrophe.

Open Ended

Why does nuclear war pose such a significant threat to world order?

Legal Responses- The UNGA

• In 1946, the UN General Assembly produced the first resolution, which concerned disarming nuclear weapons.

• Ws debated for six months at the UN, but failed to achieve an outcome due to the growing atmosphere of mutual suspicion between the United States and the Soviet Union as the Cold War set in. 

Legal Responses- Multilateral Treaties

• Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (the 'NPT'- 1968)

• The states without nuclear weapons (except for Pakistan, India and Israel) promised not to develop them if the five that did have them (the US, Russia, China, Britain and France) agreed to gradually reduce the number of weapons they held 

Open Ended

How effective have multilateral treaties been in lowering the nuclear threat, do you think?

Legal Responses- The NPT (1968)

• No additional countries are known to be pursuing nuclear weapons, and the number possessing fissile material that could be made into bombs has been reduced over the past twenty-five years from fifty to twenty-four.

• Many other countries originally had plans to develop nukes, including Australia

Effectiveness of Legal Responses- The NPT (1968)

In a backhanded acknowledgment that treaties matter, India, Pakistan, and Israel never signed it, and North Korea withdrew.

The world’s citizens are also squarely behind the movement: large majorities in almost every surveyed country favor abolition.

Multiple Choice

Has the NPT been effective?

• No, because most countries who have signed it have violated it anyway

• No, because international law relies on the voluntary compliance of the nations involved

• Yes, because it has ben effective in reducing the stockpile of nuclear weapons amongst the US and Russia, but many countries who have signed it have violated it anyway

• Yes, because it has kept the number of nuclear countries low, but it has also been ignored by a few nations

Legal Responses - Bilateral Treaties

• 1986 – the US and the USSR discussed nuclear weapons reductions with the Reykjavik Summit 1986. 

• 1991 – the US and Russia signed START I and began to reduce their nuclear stockpiles. 

• 2002 – Bush and Putin signed the SORT treaty 

• 2010 – President Obama and Russian Prime Minister Medvedev signed New START 

Effectiveness of Bilateral Treaties

The graph on the previous slide shows the decline in the stockpile of nuclear warheads since the Reykjavik Summit and the subsequent treaties- from over 60,000 in 1945 to just over 10,000 now.

Effectiveness of Bilateral Treaties

Although 10,000 nuclear warheads are still more than enough to kill everyone on earth, reducing the number lowers the risk of an accidental nuclear launch (this could happen due to a computer malfunction, a false alarm or a rogue crazy person), which would lead to an accidental nuclear war.

Multiple Select

Which of the following is the most accurate statement regarding the nuclear threat?

• Multilateral treaties (e.g. the NPT) have reduced the number of countries developing nuclear weapons

• Bilateral treaties (e.g. START) have reduced the stockpile of nuclear weapons across the world

• Multilateral treaties (e.g. the NPT) have reduced the stockpile of nuclear weapons across the world

• Bilateral treaties (e.g. START) have reduced the number of countries developing nuclear weapons

• Bilateral treaties (e.g. START) have increased the stockpile of nuclear weapons across the world

Multiple Select

Why has North Korea been so determined to develop nuclear weapons?

• They value the progress of science and engineering, and so see nuclear weapons as an intellectual exercise

• They see it as a means of ensuring that they are not attacked and that the Kim Dynasty survives

• After the USSR dissolved, they lost an important ally and protector

• They believe that nuclear weapons actually make the world a safer place for all

Multiple Select

Which of the following measures to de-nuclearise N Korea have been attempted by the US?

• Diplomatic Negotiation

• Threats

• Strategic Patience

• Military Force

• Unilateral Sanctions

Multiple Choice

Why did the invasions of Iraq and Libya damage the chances of negotiating with N Korea?

• Kim saw that the US and its allies were likely to use force to overthrow him, so nuclear weapons were his best option.

• Kim was allied with these two countries, so took their invasion as a personal insult

• Kim was emotionally scarred by the images of war on his 80" Samsung

Multiple Select

Why is a military strike against North Korea now not a reasonable option?

• North Korea could retaliate with a nuclear strike against the US, Japan or South Korea

• Many civilians would die if North Korea were hit with a nuclear strike

• Removing the North Korean government might lead to failed state and a refugee crisis as civilians try to leave the country

• North Korea have not signed a release form allowing the UN to authorise an attack against them

• Support for Kim Jong Un is actually quite high globally

Open Ended

Explain why nuclear proliferation may become a problem if North Korea can attack the US with nuclear weapons.

Legal Measures against Nth Korea- instruments

In 1985, North Korea signed the most important anti-nuclear treaty, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). By 1993, they had withdrawn from the treaty, after lying to weapons inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). 

Legal Measures against Nth Korea- instruments

In October 1994, the United States persuaded North Korea to join the ‘Agreed Framework’. This was a bilateral treaty according to which North Korea committed to freezing its illicit weapons program in exchange for aid. By 2002 the deal had collapsed.

Legal Measures against Nth Korea- sanctions

A variety of sanctions (penalties) have been imposed on North Korea- multilateral (via the EU or the UN) and unilateral (by one country). Initially, sanctions were focused on trade bans on weapons-related materials and goods but expanded to luxury goods to target the elites. Further sanctions expanded to cover financial assets, banking transactions, and general travel and trade.

Legal Measures against Nth Korea- sanctions

Sanctions are supposed to work by punishing Nth Korea for their violations, (by making life harder for Kim and his regime). They are also designed to prevent Nth Korea from developing more weapons. The hope is that Nth Korea will then be willing to negotiate so that the sanctions are lifted.

Legal Measures against Nth Korea- sanctions

UNSC resolutions have been passed regularly, e.g. Resolution 2397, passed on 22 December 2017. These resolutions generally follow the form:

(1)condemn Nth Korea, 

(2) urge them to cease whatever they have done lately and rejoin the NPT

(3) impose new sanctions

Legal Measures against Nth Korea- sanctions

Unfortunately, many of the sanctions have been evaded. Some sanctions are difficult to enforce and Nth Korea has developed means of getting around them.

Nth Korean leaders also seem willing to let their people live in poverty rather than give up their weapons program.

Multiple Select

Which of the following are reasons why sanctions have not worked in the case of Nth Korea?

• Kim does not care much about the economic prosperity of his people

• Many of the sanctions have been violated by a number of countries, reducing their effectiveness

• Nth Korea is so determined to pursue nuclear weapons that it is willing to suffer

• The sanctions have not been approved by the International Sanction Council

Non-Legal Measures

• Various non-legal measures have been applied in an attempt to lead North Korea to a legal agreement to which they will stick.

• Generally, the diplomatic efforts (politicians talking to each other), including negotiation and persuasion, have involved offering North Korea aid (they are a very poor country) and/or lifting sanctions that had been imposed on North Korea at an earlier point.

Non-Legal Measures- Diplomacy

• The Six-party talks, which included China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States, were initiated in August 2003. In 2005, those talks appeared to arrive at a critical breakthrough. North Korea pledged to abandon “all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs” and return to the NPT. The talks broke down in 2009.

Non-Legal Measures- Examples

• Obama tried a policy of ‘strategic patience’, which basically meant not rushing into conflict and hoping Nth Korea would capitulate

• Trump has alternated between threatening Nth Korea with force (calling Kim a madman who ‘will be met with fire and fury’, and praising Kim (calling him a ‘great leader’). 

Non- Legal Measures- Diplomacy

Despite having 3 separate meetings with Kim, Trump did not secure any specific agreement or treaty, and Nth Korea has not made any substantial action to denuclearise.

Multiple Select

Which of the following are the best explanations for why non-legal measures have failed in Nth Korea?

• developing nuclear weapons is all-important for the protection of the regime

• their leaders have been quite content to see their people starve

• they don’t need the cooperation of the rest of the world to gain the approval of their population. They can keep their population in check through intimidation, surveillance and severe punishment.

• The world has not placed enough importance on the North Korean situation

• The UNSC has failed to formally approve the negotiations via a vote of the P5

Non- Legal Measures- The Use of Force

Although some have suggested a military attack, it would be very dangerous. Nth Korea could kill millions of South Koreans and Japanese (maybe also Americans) before they are ‘neutralised’.