Lesson 5.2 Measuring Public Opinion Thursday, May 29

Lesson 5.2

Measuring Public Opinion

Thursday, May 29

Public opinion is a fancy way of saying “what people think.” This might be what people think the government should focus on, how likely they are to vote for a candidate, or whether they pay much attention to politics at all. Political candidates and government officials often determine which policies to pursue in response to public opinion.

Pollsters measure public opinion in a variety of ways, including scientific polling. The results of public opinion polls influence public policies, elections, and the decisions made by government institutions. But not all public opinion data is equally reliable: the type of poll used, the methods and sampling techniques, and the type and format of the questions all affect the accuracy of poll results.

​Polls conducted by a campaign as a race for office begins. These polls provide the campaign with a basis for comparison for later polls, so that the candidate can see if their likelihood of winning the office is increasing or decreasing.

Benchmark

​Performed on Election Day, these surveys are taken as voters exit their voting location. 

Exit

​A survey performed repeatedly with the same group of people to check and measure changes of opinion.

​​Tracking

​Performed on Election Day, these surveys are taken as voters enter their voting location.

​​Entrance

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​Types of Polls

​Common Problems with Polls

improper sampling techniques

​Samples should be random, otherwise poll results might not accurately represent the target population.

​Common Problems with Polls

biased questions

It’s tough for questions to be truly unbiased, but questions framed to portray candidates or policies in a positive or negative light can strongly influence responses.

​Common Problems with Polls

small sample size

The smaller the sample size, the larger the margin of error. A survey of ten people is unlikely to turn up results consistent with the preferences of the entire population of the United States. Mass surveys usually have a sample size of at least 1000 individuals.

​Common Problems with Polls

large or unreported sampling error

The results from a sample won’t exactly represent a population. This is called sampling error, and the likely size of the error is called the margin of error. Researchers should report their poll’s margin of error. If a poll reports that 58% of Americans prefer a candidate, but the margin of error is 10%, researchers should not conclude that the majority of Americans prefer the candidate (since the true percentage could be as little as 48%).

​Common Problems with Polls

lack of transparency in methods

Reliable polls publish the methods by which researchers collected the data. Without this information, it’s impossible to judge whether the researchers followed scientific procedures.

Multiple Choice

Which of the following statements best explains how a politician might use data found in a public opinion poll?

• To measure the effectiveness of public policies

• To encourage voters to support their policy position

• To craft the presentation of policy so as to gain public support

• To anticipate how media organizations will report on policy

Multiple Choice

What is public opinion?

• The opinion of select people

• The opinion of politicians from Washington, D.C.

• How a nation’s population collectively views vital policy issues and evaluates political leaders

• The opinion of an individual

Multiple Choice

How much do national campaigns spend on polling?

• 500 thousand

• 50 million

• 1 billion

• 5 billion

Multiple Choice

What is selection bias?

• Having an accurate representation sample of the population.

• Occurs when the people are not a representative sample of the population

• An accurate poll of a sample size of 1,000 to 1,500 people

• The opposite of margin of error

Multiple Choice

On Election Day, TV news network Houston News One is trying to project the 2018 Texas election results. They send pollsters to 400 voting places throughout the state to survey people before they cast their vote.

• Entrance poll

• Tracking poll

• Benchmark poll

• Exit poll

Multiple Choice

In a public opinion poll, a polling company used an online survey tool to randomly contact respondents who did not have telephone lines in addition to contacting people over the phone. Which of the following best explains this decision?

• The company saved money because it did not need to hire as many telephone interviewers to conduct the poll.

• The company was establishing a benchmark poll at the beginning of a campaign.

• The company was interested in asking different questions to different individuals.

• The company wanted to ensure that the sample of the population was truly random.

Multiple Choice

Which of the following best describes an exit poll?

• A poll that asks voters at randomly selected voting places whom they voted for so that election results can be predicted more quickly

• A poll conducted by having a computer randomly select phone numbers from around the country

• An opinion poll that is used to intentionally sway people’s opinions by using false or misleading information in the conversation

• A poll that randomly samples a population to capture public opinion at a given time

Multiple Choice

Which of the following is most important for getting an accurate measure of public opinion in a survey?

• Surveying only cell phone users

• Selecting a random sample

• Contacting only registered voters

• Conducting the survey online

Multiple Choice

Which of the following is a characteristic of a reliable scientific poll?

• Required names for all respondents

• Randomized sample

• Open-ended questions

• Entire population surveyed

Multiple Choice

A polling firm tried to predict the results of an election by sampling 1,000 adults within a state for two days prior to the election, using landline telephones of likely voters. After the election, the firm found that their poll results were not close to the actual election results. Which of the following recommendations would be the best for the firm to follow in the future?

• Sample people who have cell phones, in addition to those with landlines.

• Conduct the survey over a one-day period rather than two days.

• Adjust the results if the sample includes more people from one party than another.

• Use an Internet-based poll that encourages people to vote online for their preferred candidate.