Predicting Natural Hazards

Predicting Natural Hazards

4.2.1

Objectives

Learners can:

• describe how historical data can provide clues to future natural hazards

• identify the role of technology in predicting natural hazards

• evaluate the importance of accurate natural hazard prediction

• earthquake

• hurricane

• natural disaster

• natural hazard

Prerequisite Vocab

• hazard map

New Vocab

Vocabulary

• ​tornado

• tsunami

• volcano

​a map that highlights areas that may be affected by a particular danger

​

Hazard Map

Categorize

Options (4)

sudden shaking of the ground caused by the movement of rock underground

a natural event that causes significant damage or loss of life

tropical storm with powerful winds

natural event that has the potential to cause significant damage

Match the vocabulary word to its definition.

earthquake

natural disaster

hurricane

natural hazard

Categorize

Options (3)

desturctive weather event characterized by rotating winds

mountain formed by lava and pyroclastic material

large ocean wave caused by an underwater disturbance

Match the vocabulary word to its definition.

tornado

volcano

tsunami

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• historical records

• news articles

• scientific studies

• eyewitness accounts

Types of Historical Data

Historical data is a crucial component of studying natural hazards. Exploring natural disasters that have impacted an area provides insights into the possibility of future natural hazards.

Historical Data

• may not always be reliable or complete

• ex. may not provide an accurate measurement of intensity

Disadvantages

• help identify patterns and trends

• ex. shows that a particular area is prone to earthquakes

Advantages

Pros and Cons

Multiple Choice

Which of the following is a way that historical data helps in predicting natural hazards?

• by enabling scientists to accurately predict the exact location of future natural disasters

• by helping to identify patterns and trends in past natural disasters

• by providing real-time data on current natural disaster

• by providing accurate eyewitness accounts of natural disasters that occurred in the distant past

​Remote Sensing

Remote sensing is a critical tool in monitoring and predicting natural hazards. It refers to the use of satellites, aircraft, and other technology to gather information about Earth's surface and atmosphere. Remote sensing can provide real-time data about the location, intensity, and movement of natural hazards.

Used to observe Earth's surface from space. This helps to track sever weather, such as hurricanes.

​​Satellites

​Allows scientists to track and monitor the movement and intensity of weather patterns. This helps to predict potential severe storms.

Radar

Remote sensing tool that monitors shifts in Earth's crust. It can be used to monitor earthquakes and volcanic activity.

​​Seismograph

Multiple Choice

Which of the following is a way in which remote sensing helps in predicting natural hazards?

• sending warning messages to people in affected areas

• monitoring social media for reports of hazards

• issuing evacuation orders to at-risk populations

• measuring changes in the physical properties of Earth's surface

Remote sensing helps to identify areas that are at risk for natural hazards. Scientists can use this information to develop strategies to minimize the impact of these hazards. However, remote sensing can be limited by factors such as weather conditions, cloud cover, and the availability of equipment. Additionally, not all regions have access to remote sensing technology, which can limit the ability of scientists to gather data about natural hazards in those areas.

Computer Modeling

When researchers input data about the environment, infrastructure, and human populations, computer models can simulate the effects of natural hazards and predict their impacts on these systems.

Computer models can be used to predict the path and intensity of hurricanes. This tracking can help officials make decisions about evacuation orders and emergency supplies.

• limited by the accuracy and completeness of the data to complete them

• all models include assumptions which may or may not be correct

• can be affected by errors in the input data or changes in the environment not accounted for in the model

Disadvantages

• ability to provide a more accurate and detailed prediction than historical data

• can take into account a wide range of variables

Advantages

Pros and Cons

Categorize

Options (4)

ability to simulate hazardous events in a controlled environment

allows for the prediction of hazards before they occur

limited by the accuracy of available data

predictions may be influenced by assumptions made by the modeler

Determine whether each statement is an advantage or disadvantage to using computer models when predicting natural hazards.

Advantage

Disadvantage

• crucial to use a range of methods and sources of data

• combining historical data and remote sensing can help create more accurate predictions

Improving Accuracy

• can help prepare for and mitigate the impact

• ex. can help inform building codes and infrastructure planning to minimize damage

Importance of Accuracy

Accuracy

A hazard map is a map that highlights areas that may be affected by a particular danger. These maps are created by analyzing various data sources such as historical records, remote sensing, geological surveys, and ground measurements to identify areas at risk of natural hazards.

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Hazard Maps