Estimation: estimating base rates & calibration

Define the concept of the base rate.

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We'll now do some base rate estimation tasks, to train you to estimate numbers. We'll use that also when practicing Fermi estimates! :) Ok?

• if I must...

• bring it on!

The number of gum-balls in the jar is ... (round to nearest power of 10, i.e. 10, 100, 1000, 10000, etc.)

The number of long-distance trains (ICE, BOB, etc.) that are waiting at the platforms is typically (@ Munich Hbf)

• less than 5

• between 5 and 50

• between 50 and 300

• more than 300

The number of people that buy a coffee (during non-corona times) on a typical day at a small neighborhood cafe is

• less than 10

• between 10 and 500

• more than 500

The number of people that buy a coffee (during non-corona times) on a typical day at the Backwerk in Hauptbahnhof

• less than 10

• between 10 and 500

• between 500 and 10.000

• more than 10.000

On a yearly basis, the base rate of flu (Grippe) infections in Germany is:

• more than 500.000

• between 500.000 and 5.000

• fewer than 5.000

On a yearly basis, the base rate of (deadly) car accidents per capita is (pro Kopf pro Jahr):

• less than 1 per 500.000 people

• between 1 per 500.000 and 1 per 5.000

• more than 1 per 5.000

The number of hours a typical Gymnasium student spends doing homework, on a yearly basis, is

• less than 100 hours

• between 100 and 1500 hours

• between 1500 and 5000 hours

• more than 5000 hours

Per year and per capita, how many liters of coca cola and cola-mixtures do Germans consume (also, liter pro Kopf)?

• less than 1 liters

• between 1 and 10 liters

• between 10 and 100 liters

• between 100 and 1000 liters

• more than 1000 liters (seriously? ;))