AP Psych A - Module 4

After the student council election, a friend tells you he has known for weeks who would be elected president. What does this seem to illustrate?

• Skepticism

• Critical Thinking

• Hindsight bias

• Overconfidence

• Perceiving order in random events

While taking a standardized test with randomly scrambled answers, you notice that your last four answers have been “c.” Which of the following is true concerning the probability of the next answer being “c”?

• It is higher. Once a streak begins, it is likely to last for a while.

• It is lower. Since answers are distributed randomly, “c” answers become less common.

• It is unaffected by previous answers. It is as likely to be “c” as any other answer.

• You should check your previous answers. Four “c’s” in a row is impossible.

• It is higher. Test constructors trick students by keeping the same answer many times in a row

What do we call the tendency to exaggerate the correctness or accuracy of our beliefs and predictions prior to testing?

• Hindsight bias

• Overconfidence

• Critical thinking

• Skepticism

• Reliability

Which of the following is an example of hindsight bias?

• Tom is certain that electric cars will represent 80 percent of vehicles in twenty years and only reads research studies that support his hypothesis.

• Liza underestimates how much time it will take her to finish writing her college application essays and as a result fails to meet an important deadline.

• Experts predicting world events with 80 percent confi dence turned out to be correct less than 40 percent of the time.

• Marcy cannot recognize a definition on a flashcard. After turning the card over and viewing the term, she tells herself she knew what the answer was all along.

• Dr. Grace overestimates how effectively her new treatment method works because she fails to seek out any evidence refuting her theory