4.5 & 4.6 - Measuring Public Opinion

Which of the following is most important for getting an accurate measure of public opinion in a survey?

• Surveying only cell phone users

• Selecting a random sample

• Asking leading questions

• Contacting only registered voters

• Conducting the survey online

Which of the following best describes an exit poll?

• A poll that asks voters at randomly selected voting places whom they voted for so that election results can be predicted more quickly

• A poll conducted by having a computer randomly select phone numbers from around the country

• An opinion poll that is used to intentionally sway people’s opinions by using false or misleading information in the conversation

• A poll that randomly samples a population to capture public opinion at a given time

A media organization is interested in reporting election results in a congressional election prior to the final tally of votes which will not occur until later in the evening. The organization randomly selects several polling places across the district asking voters whom they voted for. The type of poll being used in this scenario is known as

• an exit poll

• a benchmark poll

• an opinion poll

• a tracking poll

Agree-Disagree v. Forced Choice Questions

Agree-Disagree

The best way to ensure peace is through military strength. (55% agree, 42% disagree)

Forced Choice

The best way to ensure peace is through military strength (33%)

OR

Diplomacy is the best way to ensure peace (55%)

Source: Pew Research Center, 1999.

Based on the outcome of the polls, which of the following is likely true about questions that use the agree-disagree format?

• Questions that use the agree-disagree format increase the percentage of respondents who agree with the primary statement.

• Questions that use the agree-disagree format create confusion about what is being asked.

• Questions that use the agree-disagree format reduce support for the public policy that is being surveyed.

• Questions that use the agree-disagree promote considerations of other perspectives.

In a public opinion poll, a polling company used an online survey tool to randomly contact respondents who did not have telephone lines in addition to contacting people over the phone. Which of the following best explains this decision?

• The company saved money because it did not need to hire as many telephone interviewers to conduct the poll.

• The company was establishing a benchmark poll at the beginning of a campaign.

• The company was interested in asking different questions to different individuals.

• The company wanted to ensure that the sample of the population was truly random.

Which of the following is likely true about the 2018 midterm elections based on the data in the line graph?

• The budget deficit is going to be a bigger issue in the 2018 midterm elections than it was in the 2010 midterm elections.

• Members of Congress that are running for reelection are likely to emphasize their record on the budget deficit rather than jobs.

• Democrats are more likely than Republicans to vote in the 2018 midterm elections.

• Economic issues are less likely to be discussed in the 2018 midterm elections than in the 2012 presidential elections.

A polling firm tried to predict the results of an election by sampling 1,000 adults within a state for two days prior to the election, using landline telephones of likely voters. After the election, the firm found that their poll results were not close to the actual election results. Which of the following recommendations would be the best for the firm to follow in the future?

• Sample people who have cell phones, in addition to those with landlines.

• Conduct the survey over a one-day period rather than two days.

• Adjust the results if the sample includes more people from one party than another.

• Use an Internet-based poll that encourages people to vote online for their preferred candidate.

Which of the following is a likely public policy result of the data on the line graph?

• Public policies that create jobs but increase the deficit, such as tax cuts or infrastructure spending, will likely be prioritized over paying down the national debt.

• Bills in Congress that create an economic stimulus through public works projects will pass with bipartisan support.

• A program to extend unemployment benefits to more people will likely pass in 2018.

• Public policies that pay down the deficit but are harmful to economic growth will likely pass during the next Congress.

Which of the following represents the most likely way the information in the table will be used?

• The media will use the data to present horse race coverage of elections.

• Political action committees (PACs) will use the data to determine which candidates for elected office they will support.

• Congress will use the data to suggest that there is support for their legislative proposals.

• Social movements will use this data in their legal briefings before the federal courts.

Which of the following best explains the data in the line graph?

• Between 2012 and 2018, the economy did not grow enough to make economic issues a top priority.

• Voters care more about jobs than the budget deficit because there has been an increase in unemployment between 2010 and 2018.

• The economy is likely the most important issue because it is a broader category that is more open to individual interpretation than both jobs and the budget deficit.

• Complex issues such as the budget deficit receive little attention in the media even though citizens care deeply about them.