Week 5: Longtermism

Given the scale of human existence so far,

• humanity might be just at its infancy; it may exist for a very long time yet

• we have probably reached the height of our civilisation, and should be careful of civilisational collapse

• population growth is becoming unsustainable unless we colonise mars

• it is remarkable that humanity has not yet gone extinct

Answer explanation

Humans have existed for 300,000 years. Mammals have an average species "lifespan" from origination to extinction of about 1 million years, although some species persist for as long as 10 million years.

"if human beings survive as long as the average mammal species, then for every person alive today, a thousand people will live in the future. We are the ancients. On the scale of a typical human life, humanity today is barely an infant struggling to walk." - William Macaskill

Which of the following is NOT a reason that some people care about the long term future of humanity?

• Gratitude to ancestors propels them to be a good ancestor to future descendants

• Many more people will exist in the future than currently exist now – they deserve a voice.

• Near-term problems are not really solvable.

• Making the future big and long so that as many happy people will exist as possible.

How many humans have ever lived?

• ~10 billion

• ~1 billion

• ~100 billion

• ~1 trillion (1000 billion)

According to Holden Karnofsky in "This Can't Go On," why can't humanity sustain a growth rate of 2% for 10000 years?

• It would require us to sustain multiple economies as big as today's entire world economy per atom

• Growth is reliant on the burning of fossil fuels, which will run out soon

• Human birthrates are declining rapidly, so there won't be enough people to work

• Humanity will definitely be extinct in 10000 years

What reason is NOT given for disagreeing with longtermism in "Why I am probably not a longtermist"?

• Humanity isn't inherently good

• People far away don't matter

• Utilitarianism isn't very compelling

• The future might not be better than today