Likelihood Theoretical and Experimental Probability

Juan rolled this die 100 times and recorded the following results: He rolled a 1 - 15 times He rolled a 2 - 19 times He rolled a 3 - 17 times He rolled a 4 - 16 times He rolled a 5 - 18 times He rolled a 6 - 15 times What was his experimental probability of rolling a 2?

• 1/6

• 19/100

• 2/6

• 1/3

What is the theoretical probability of rolling this die and getting a 4?

• 4

• 4/6

• 2

• 1/6

Josh flipped this quarter 50 times. It landed on heads 22 times and it landed on tails 28 times. What was the experimental probability of flipping this quarter and having it land on tails?

• 22

• 28

• 28/50

• 14/25

Experimental probability is________________________

• the ratio of the number of times an event occurs to the total number of trials.

• the likelihood of an experiment being successful.

• the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the number of possible outcomes

• the likelihood of getting a favorable outcome.

As you increase the amount of times you repeat an experiment, your ​ (a)   gets ​ (b)   your theoretical probability.

• experimental probability

• theoretical probability

• closer to

• further from

The probability based on a number of trials is ​ (a)   and the probability based on analyzing a situation is ​ (b)  

• Experimental probability

• Theoretical probability

• Right probability

• Wrong probability

During a festival game, children attempt to wind a prize by drawing a token from a bag. The tokens are labeled Large Prize, Small Prize, or No Prize. After a token is drawn, it is returned to the bag. The table on the left shows the three types of tokens and the number of each token in the bag.

Lia observes the game and keeps track of 20 consecutive draws from the bag. She records her results in the table shown on the right.

Which statements about the game are true? Drag each statement to the True or False category.

Groups:

(a) True

,

(b) False

• The theoretical probability of winning a small prize is 0.10.

• Based on the theoretical probability, it is more likely to win a small prize than a large prize.

• From Lia's observed frequencies, the probability of winning a large or small prize is 0.7.

• The theoretical probability of winning a large prize is 0.125.

• The observed probability model matches the theoretical probability model.

• From Lia's observed frequencies, the probability of getting no prize is 0.65.

Match the following

• Based on a number of trials

• Fair game

• The chances of winning are equal

• Experimental probability

• Based on analysis of situation

• Systematic list

• List to make sure all items are included

• Theoretical probability

Match the following

• a guess about the outcomes

• experimental probability

• probability based on what actually happens during and experiment

• theoretical probability

• probability based on outcomes being favorable outcomes

• compound event

• when all outcomes are equally likely

• prediction

• made up of two or more single events, each with different possible outcomes

• fair

What is the type of probability based on frequency of outcomes during an experiment?

•  experimental probability

• fundamental counting principle

• mutually exclusive event

• dependent event