Operations and Supply Chain Management Worksheet

If the actual value (Aₜ) is 100, the forecast value (Fₜ) is 90, and T = 1, what is the MAPE for this period?

• 10%

• 5%

• 1%

• 0.1%

What is the main assumption behind statistical forecasting?

• The future will be an extrapolation of the past

• The future is unpredictable

• The past has no influence on the future

• Forecasting is always inaccurate

Which method of statistical forecasting extrapolates only historical time-series data?

• Regression

• Time series

• Simulation

• Qualitative analysis

How does regression differ from time series in statistical forecasting?

• Regression uses only future data, while time series uses past data

• Regression extrapolates historical time-series data and considers other causal factors, while time series uses only historical time-series data

• Regression ignores causal factors, while time series includes them

• Regression is not used in forecasting

Given the formula for the moving average forecast: F_{t+1} = (A_t + A_{t-1} + A_{t-2} + ... + A_{t-k+1})/k, what does "k" represent?

• The number of most recent observations used in the average

• The total number of observations in the time series

• The forecasted value for the next period

• The difference between the highest and lowest values

Which of the following best describes the purpose of Single Exponential Smoothing (SES)?

• To use a weighted average of past time-series values to forecast the value of the time series in the next period.

• To calculate the mean of all past values in a time series.

• To identify seasonal patterns in time-series data.

• To determine the maximum value in a time series.

In the formula for Single Exponential Smoothing, what does the parameter α (alpha) represent?

• The smoothing constant.

• The forecasted value.

• The actual value at time t.

• The time period.

What is the valid range for the smoothing constant α in Single Exponential Smoothing?

• 0 ≤ α ≤ 1

• 0 ≤ α < 10

• 1 ≤ α ≤ 2

• α > 1

The smoothing constant α in Single Exponential Smoothing is approximately equal to which of the following expressions?

• 2 / (k + 1)

• k / (2 + 1)

• 1 / (k + 2)

• k + 1 / 2

If k = 4, what is the approximate value of the smoothing constant α?

• 0.4

• 0.5

• 0.33

• 0.25