Why Economist LaVorgna Is Worried About U.S. Growth in 2022

The transcript discusses the current economic growth, predicting a slowdown in 2022 due to factors like pandemic-induced spending and consumption trends. It examines the Federal Reserve's likely inaction in terms of tapering and interest rate hikes, influenced by market expectations and potential budget deals. Inflation concerns are addressed, with a focus on unique economic conditions and the impact of fiscal stimulus. The discussion also covers supply chain disruptions and their effect on market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of real yield and secular stagnation.

What is the expected GDP growth for the next year according to the transcript?

• 5-6%

• 10% or more

• 2% or less

• 7-8%

What has been the impact of the pandemic on consumer spending?

• Decreased goods purchases

• Spending brought forward

• Increased savings rate

• Stable consumption patterns

What is the Federal Reserve expected to do in the current economic environment?

• Increase interest rates

• Reduce liquidity

• Taper and tighten policies

• Maintain current policies

What is the expected timeline for the next rate hike according to historical cycles?

• In 5 years

• Immediately

• After 7 years

• Within 2 years

Why might inflation be a concern according to the transcript?

• Due to a lack of government assistance

• Because of excessive fiscal stimulus

• Owing to a decrease in consumer demand

• As a result of stable supply chains

What is the term used to describe the temporary nature of current inflation?

• Cyclical inflation

• Permanent inflation

• Secular inflation

• Transitory inflation

How does the market view the future growth according to the real yield?

• Rapid decline

• Secular stagnation

• Moderate growth

• Very strong growth