Insigneo's Riesgo on US Markets

The video discusses the current state of the S&P 500, predicting volatility and a potential recession in 2024. It examines the limited impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict on markets, with a focus on oil prices and hedging strategies. Economic indicators suggest a healthy economy, but monetary policy tightening may lead to a recession by mid-2024. The video also covers US Treasury yields, investment strategies, China's economic outlook, and the undervaluation of the yen in relation to the Bank of Japan's policies.

What is the expected range for the S&P 500 index by the end of the year?

• 3900 to 4100

• 4100 to 4300

• 4300 to 4500

• 4500 to 4700

How might the Israel-Hamas conflict potentially affect oil prices?

• Fluctuate due to European demand

• Increase due to Iranian supply risks

• Decrease due to increased production

• Remain stable due to no impact

Which asset is suggested as a hedge against geopolitical risks?

• Gold

• Real Estate

• Cryptocurrency

• Silver

What recent economic data suggests a healthy economy despite recession concerns?

• Falling stock market

• Decreasing consumer spending

• Improved GDP growth

• Rising unemployment rates

What is the current fair value model estimate for the 10-year US yield?

• Below 3%

• Just above 4%

• Above 6%

• Around 5%

What is the main reason for the undervaluation of the yen according to the transcript?

• High inflation in Japan

• Trade surplus in Japan

• Low interest rates in the US

• Purchase power parity basis

What is the expected GDP growth rate for China?

• 9%

• 7%

• 5%

• 3%