10-Year Treasury Yields Won't Rise as High as 4.7%: Union Investment

The video discusses the impact of monetary policy on the US economy and inflation, highlighting the lag in policy effects. It examines the Fed's rate decisions, focusing on the duration of current rates rather than additional hikes. The discussion includes the resilience of the US economy and the potential for a soft landing. The video also explores the supply side of the treasury market and the expected rise in term premium due to the Fed's balance sheet reduction, which could pressure long-term yields.

What is the expected trend for underlying inflation in the US according to the transcript?

• It will increase rapidly.

• It will remain stable.

• It will fluctuate unpredictably.

• It will decline very slowly.

What is the market's expectation for the Fed funds rate by the end of 2024?

• 3.5%

• 2.5%

• 4.1%

• 5.0%

According to the transcript, what is the current focus of the market regarding the Fed's actions?

• The effect on global markets.

• The impact on unemployment.

• The duration of current rate levels.

• The number of rate hikes.

What factor is expected to put upward pressure on long-term yields in the US Treasury market?

• A rise in term premiums.

• Increased demand from the official sector.

• A decrease in inflation rates.

• The Fed's balance sheet expansion.

What has kept the term premium artificially low for a long period?

• Stable economic growth.

• High inflation rates.

• Large asset purchases by the Fed.

• Increased foreign investment.