What Would Be the Worst-Case Scenario in U.S.-China Trade Spat?

The transcript discusses the uncertainty in global trade relations, particularly between the US and China, and the potential economic impacts. It explores the possibility of reaching a trade agreement and the consequences of a worst-case scenario involving tariffs on all trade. The analysis includes potential GDP changes and the effects on the global economy, highlighting the risks of a recession in the US and China.

What is the current state of trade negotiations between the US and China?

• Both sides have reached a final agreement.

• Negotiations are ongoing with clear signals of progress.

• Both sides are not currently talking, but future discussions are possible.

• The US has withdrawn from all trade talks.

What could be a consequence of prolonged trade uncertainty?

• A boost in global trade activities.

• Stability in global supply chains.

• Postponement of business investment spending.

• Immediate economic growth in both countries.

In the worst-case scenario, what action might China take in response to US tariffs?

• Increase tariffs on all US imports.

• Reduce tariffs on US goods.

• Stop all trade with the US.

• Increase imports from the US.

What is a potential impact of a US recession on Europe?

• Europe would suffer due to its economic weakness.

• Europe would remain unaffected.

• Europe would experience economic growth.

• Europe would benefit from increased US imports.

If an agreement is reached by the end of the year, what is the expected impact on US GDP growth?

• US GDP growth would decrease by 0.5%.

• US GDP growth would remain unchanged.

• US GDP growth would decrease by 2%.

• US GDP growth would increase by 1%.