Natwest’s Lin Sees USD-CNY at 6.80 by Year’s End

The video discusses the dynamics between the US dollar and the Chinese RMB, highlighting the impact of tariffs and market trends. It predicts the RMB's peak strength against the dollar and the potential for a slight current account deficit in China. The discussion also covers the dollar's stability against major currencies like the euro and yen, considering the Fed's policies. Additionally, it examines China's currency agreements and their implications, comparing them to historical accords like the Plaza Accord.

What is the expected range for Dollar China after the positive headlines from Trump and Xi?

• 680 to 700

• 670 to 690

• 660 to 680

• 650 to 670

Which currency is the US dollar expected to weaken against according to the analysis?

• Indonesian Rupiah

• British Pound

• Euro

• Yen

Why is it expensive to go short on dollars against the Euro and Yen?

• Strong economic growth in the US

• Weak economic data in Europe and Japan

• Low interest rates in the Eurozone and Japan

• High interest rates in the US

What is the main difference between the current Chinese currency policy and the Plaza Accord?

• China is actively devaluing its currency

• The US is weakening its currency

• China is increasing tariffs

• China is pledging not to devalue its currency

What is the implication of China's pledge not to devalue its currency?

• Increased market intervention by China

• Reduced tail risk of Dollar CNY reaching 7 or 8

• Higher trade surplus for China

• Stronger US dollar against all currencies