UBS's Haefele: Markets Not Fully Discounting a Trump Win

The video discusses the increasing positive correlation between stocks and bonds, complicating asset allocation. It highlights central bank policies, particularly the Fed and BOJ, and their impact on markets. The role of fiscal policy in conjunction with monetary measures is examined, with a focus on potential political changes like a Trump presidency and their market implications. The video concludes with an analysis of emerging market assets, considering factors like oil prices and Federal Reserve actions.

What has been the recent trend in the correlation between stocks and bonds?

• They have become more negatively correlated.

• They have become more positively correlated.

• Their correlation has remained the same.

• They have become uncorrelated.

What is one reason some investors are moving towards cash?

• To increase risk exposure.

• To avoid central bank policies.

• To use it as a diversifier.

• To maximize returns.

What is the Bank of Japan's stance on negative interest rates?

• They plan to eliminate negative rates.

• They have no stance on negative rates.

• They are less likely to use negative rates.

• They are likely to increase negative rates.

What is one tactic central banks use to facilitate fiscal stimulus?

• Increasing taxes.

• Raising interest rates.

• Reducing government spending.

• Positioning for easier borrowing.

What is a potential impact of a Trump presidency on the markets?

• Increased market stability.

• Immediate market growth.

• No impact on the markets.

• Uncertainty leading to market pullback.

What is the expected trend for oil prices over the next 12 months?

• A moderate increase.

• A significant increase.

• Stability at current levels.

• A significant decrease.

How might the Federal Reserve's current stance benefit emerging market currencies?

• By reducing currency value.

• By maintaining lower rates for longer.

• By increasing interest rates.

• By increasing inflation.