ING-DiBa's Brzeski Sees `At Least One Rate Hike Under Draghi'

The transcript discusses the European Central Bank's (ECB) potential strategies regarding bond reinvestment and interest rate hikes. It highlights the speculation around the ECB reinvesting maturing bond proceeds and the anticipated timeline for rate hikes, with a focus on internal consensus and Draghi's legacy. The discussion also covers the ECB's cautious approach due to past policy mistakes in 2008 and 2011, and the potential for policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve.

What is the current speculation regarding the ECB's reinvestment strategy?

• Reinvesting in short-term bonds

• Reinvesting in the long end of the curve

• Stopping all reinvestments

• Increasing interest rates immediately

When is the first rate hike by the ECB expected?

• Before the end of this year

• Not until 2020

• In the summer of next year

• In the spring of next year

What are the potential meeting dates for a rate hike under Draghi's presidency?

• Early December 2019 or late January 2020

• Early March 2019 or late April 2019

• Early June 2019 or late July 2019

• Early September 2019 or late October 2019

How have past ECB mistakes influenced current policy decisions?

• They promote aggressive tightening

• They have no influence

• They lead to caution and delayed rate hikes

• They encourage early rate hikes

What might happen if the ECB tightens policy while the Fed ends its tightening cycle?

• The Fed will restart its tightening cycle

• The ECB will stop its hiking cycle sooner

• The ECB will continue hiking indefinitely

• The Eurozone will decouple from the US