How China Trade Tensions Could Impact the U.S. Economy

The transcript discusses the current economic report, highlighting the solid growth despite weak front-month data. It explores the labor market's tightness, female participation, and the implications of operating beyond full employment. The conversation shifts to wage trends, inflation, and the impact of productivity growth on wages. The potential effects of trade policies, particularly the trade skirmish with China, are examined. The transcript concludes with a discussion on the Federal Reserve's gradual rate hikes and their strategy to balance inflation and employment.

What does the recent economic report suggest about the momentum in the economy?

• The economy is growing faster than expected.

• The economy's momentum is overstated.

• The economy is stable with no changes.

• The economy is shrinking.

How has female participation affected labor force participation?

• It has caused labor force participation to fluctuate.

• It has weakened labor force participation.

• It has had no effect on labor force participation.

• It has strengthened labor force participation.

What is the relationship between average hourly earnings and labor participation?

• Higher participation decreases earnings.

• Wage growth is independent of participation.

• Steady participation limits wage growth.

• Higher earnings lead to lower participation.

How does current wage growth compare to the late 90s?

• Current wage growth is unpredictable.

• Current wage growth is the same.

• Current wage growth is slower.

• Current wage growth is faster.

What might the strong jobs report encourage the Trump administration to do?

• Reduce trade barriers.

• Negotiate peace treaties.

• Escalate trade skirmishes.

• Focus on domestic policies.

Where are the first negative effects of trade expected to appear?

• In the healthcare sector.

• In the service sector.

• In the technology sector.

• In manufacturing and investment.

Why is the Federal Reserve raising rates gradually?

• To balance economic growth and inflation.

• To slow down economic growth.

• To decrease consumer spending.

• To increase unemployment.