Recession Likely, Inflation Off Peak: Economist Reinhart

The transcript discusses the challenges of predicting recessions, emphasizing that while exact predictions are difficult, there are indicators of elevated risk. It explores the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, focusing on interest rate strategies to control inflation. The conversation highlights the volatility of inflation and the need to manage aggregate demand. It also debates future inflation goals, considering historical context and the role of Congress in setting economic objectives.

What is the main argument regarding predicting a recession?

How does the speaker describe the current monetary policy?

How does the speaker view the relationship between inflation and economic pain?

What does the speaker suggest about the neutral funds rate?

What concerns does the speaker express regarding inflation?

What is the significance of the 2% inflation goal mentioned?

What does the speaker imply about redefining inflation goals?