Inflation Looks Like It's Peaking, KPMG's Swonk Says

The transcript discusses the Federal Reserve's approach to rate hikes, highlighting the potential for higher terminal rates and the impact of the PCE index. It covers SCP projections and rate expectations for December, noting a significant jump in rate projections. The analysis of CPI and inflation trends suggests a peak in underlying inflation, with a focus on medical and shelter costs. The recession outlook predicts a moderate recession with low unemployment rates, influenced by demographic changes. Economic factors and policy decisions, including the debt ceiling and potential stimulus, are also examined.

How does the PCE index relate to the Fed's rate decisions?

What are the implications of the Fed's decision to raise rates at a slower pace?

What factors contribute to the current inflation rate being considered too high by the Fed?

Discuss the potential impact of a prolonged downturn on the economy.

What are the expected changes in the unemployment rate during a recession according to the text?

How might the aging population affect the labor market and unemployment rates?

What are the anticipated effects of government policies on economic recovery?