Predictions: What Went Wrong?

The video discusses the challenges of making accurate predictions in politics and economics, highlighting Philip Tetlock's research on expert forecasting. It contrasts 'hedgehogs' who make bold predictions with 'foxes' who consider multiple data points. The video also explores the complexities of COVID-19 and weather modeling, emphasizing the importance of assumptions and the iterative process of refining predictions. It critiques media portrayal of predictions and suggests skepticism towards bold, unaccountable forecasts.

What are some common themes observed in recent news regarding President Trump's reelection odds?

According to Philip Tetlock, how accurate are professional predictors compared to random chance?

What characteristics define 'hedgehogs' in the context of predictions?

How do 'foxes' differ from 'hedgehogs' in their approach to predictions?

What assumptions do weather models rely on, and how does this relate to COVID predictions?

What is the significance of confidence intervals in epidemiological predictions?

What was one major flaw in the COVID-19 prediction model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation?

How should the media approach the changing predictions of scientists regarding COVID-19?

What steps should be taken to improve the accuracy of predictions in various fields?

Why is it important to hold forecasters accountable for their predictions?