Choices: Yalta & The Bomb

Choices: Yalta & The Bomb

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Yalta 1945

• War in Europe is drawing to an end; Allied forces approach Germany from the west, Soviet forces march through Poland and Hungary towards Germany from east

• U.S. and USSR allies for the war, but likelihood of future cooperation is questionable.

• Soviets are communist and Stalin desires spread of communism

• You will still need Stalin's 'Red Army' to defeat Nazi's and possibly in remaining war with Japan

• You (FDR) Churchill, and Stalin meet in city of Yalta to plan for post-war fate of Europe

Yalta 1945 - Decision

• What will happen to lands seized by Nazi's after war?

• What will happen to Germany itself?

• Can Great Britain, the U.S., and the Soviet Union do anything to ensure that a global conflict never happens again

Problem #1 - Poland

• USSR now occupy Eastern Europe as they march towards Germany

• Allied powers have no intention of permanently occupying Western Europe

• Stalin wants a buffer zone of Soviet-friendly states for security

• He also expresses desire for the spread of communism

• Poland largest eastern European nation

Problem #1 - Poland

• "London Poles" and Churchill seek reinstatement of democratically elected leaders

• Stalin seeks protection from future invasions

• "Lublin Poles" installed by Stalin as a puppet government to rule country

• U.S. believes in self-determination; believes Poles should hold free and fair elections

• Fears that Lublin Poles will rig the election

• USSR also disputes border of Poland, claiming land lost during WW1.

• London Poles dispute claim, but willing to accede in exchange for territory in Germany

Open Ended

What will you choose? Choose any options from #1-8

Poland Outcomes

• FDR asks Stalin to make decision that would at least 'look positive to appease Polish-American voters

• Stalin agrees to hold free and fair elections if Lublin Poles can rule for time being

• U.S. negotiators suggest all 3 major powers jointly supervise elections; Stalin refuses

• Stalin never holds free and fair elections

• Stalin also agrees to Declaration of Liberated Europe, calling for fair elections and self-determination through eastern Europe

• Like Poland, there are no provisions for enforcement

• Stalin's broken promises strain relations between Soviet Union and U.S., setting stage for Cold War

Problem #2 - Germany

• Germany will be leaderless and in ruins

• Should Germany pay and be punished once again? They rose up in spite of Versailles, so some favor seeing the country remain destroyed

• Some feel broken Germany will hobble Europe's economic recovery; Germany is important industrial hub.

• Some claim treatment after WW 1 reason behind rise of Nazi's, recovery is better approach

Problem #2 - Germany

• Should Germany pay reparations for damages?

• Initially, neither U.S. nor Britain want large reparations., but Stalin wants 10 billion (a lot)

• Soviet Union has born greatest losses 7.5 million lives; Stalin wants Germany devastated

• US advisors divided; some support Stalin's idea of reparations. Others fear all of Europe will suffer without Germany economic recovery

• U.S. will have to bear a large financial cost to save European economies prevent widespread poverty and starvation to rebuild Europe

• Essentially, we would have to pay Germans so they can pay Soviet Union

• You also know you will need Stalin's help to end war in Germany and Japan

Open Ended

What will you choose? Choose any option #1-5.

Germany Outcomes

• 3 governments agree to divide Germany into 4 occupation zones.

• Agreement for 10 billion in reparations as 'a basis for later discussion'

• At Potsdam Conference 5 months later, agreement that reparations could only be collected from zone of occupation

• This prevents U.S. from effectively paying the Soviet Union

• Separate economic and political control of each zone resulted in further division of Germany

• Under supervision of U.S. and Britain, 3 western regions unite to become West Germany. Full unification of Germany not until 1990 (end of Cold War).

Problem #3 - The United Nations

• Many countries (including U.S.) want an international organization to preserve peace and avoid future conflict

• It will be better organized; consisting of General Assembly (all countries) and Security Council (only major powers).

• Soviets willing to join, but insist on having 1 vote in GA for each of 15 republics composing USSR.

• Soviets also demand unlimited veto power - even on procedural questions

  • Vetos on procedural matters can be used to prevent issues from even being debated and voted on by the UN Assembly, effectively rendering it unable to address concerns if a procedural veto is enacted.
    

    
    

Open Ended

What will you choose? Any options #1-4.

United Nations Outcomes

• Soviets compromise and agree to 3 votes in GA.

• Regarding veto, powers agree that permanent members to SC can veto proposals but not procedural questions

• Procedure usually concerns whether to debate a proposal in the first place

• Also, a country involved in a conflict could not exercise veto power

• Later in 1945, Soviets insist that they had right to veto decisions about whether questions were or were not procedural

• Stalin eventually capitulates on the issue (possibly because Poland compromise

• Most Americans agree that Stalin's help might be needed to defeat Japan once war in Europe is complete

  • Advisors suggest as many as 1 million U.S. soldiers may die in land invasion of Japan.

  • U.S. scientists working to develop an atom bomb, but there's no guarantee when it will be ready or if it will work

• Advisors suggest Stalin is open to assisting in war against Japan in return for territorial gains in Asia, including partial occupation of Japan itself

Problem #4 - War Against Japan

• Soviet Union foothold in Asia might allow Stalin to support communist civil war in China led by Mao Zedong.

• U.S. supports right of self-determination in ALL countries; fears that a Communist China might shift balance of power and influence away from democracy and self-rule in other parts of the world.

• You must decide whether to seek assistance from Soviet Union and how that might allow the spread of communism in Asia

Problem #4 - War Against Japan

Open Ended

What will you choose?

Choose ONE option to support.

• U.S. and Soviets agreed that USSR would enter the war against Japan 3 months after end of war in Europe

• In exchange, Soviets would get part of Manchuria (China), part of Sakhalin Islands, and Kurile Islands

• Some historians suggests threat of Soviet army might have factored into Japan's decision to surrender (others suggest that atomic bomb alone might have triggered surrender w/o Soviet support).

• Soviet occupation of parts of Asia may have been a factor in support for Mao's revolution and ultimately the establishment of a communist regime in China

War Against Japan - Outcomes