AP Psych 0.2

Explain the difference between overconfidence and hindsight bias.

Continuation of Question 1 if more space needed.

Do you have a hard time believing you may be overconfident?

Could overconfidence be at work in that self-assessment?

How might reading this section about overconfidence help reduce your tendency to be overconfident?

The tendency to exaggerate the correctness or accuracy of our beliefs and predictions is called

• hindsight bias

• overconfidence

• critical thinking

• skepticism

While sitting at a stoplight, Nancy believes that the next car she sees will be blue because the previous three cars have been blue. Which psychological concept explains this belief she has?

• Hindsight bias

• Critical thinking

• Perceiving order in random events

• Overconfidence

After the student council, election, a friend tells you he could have guessed who wold have been elected president. Which psychological phenomenon does this scenario best illustrate?

• Common sense

• Hindsigt Bias

• Overconfidence

• Perceiving order in random events

While taking a standardized test with randomly scrambled answers, you notice "c" has been the past four answers Which of the following is the probability that the next answer will also be "C"?

• It is higher because previous answers have been "C". Once a streak begins, it is likely to follow.

• It is lower because the past answers have been "C" since answers are distributed randomly "c" answers will be less common.

• It is unaffected by the previous answers. It is as likely to "c" as any other answer

• It is higher based on previous answers being "c" Test constructors default to answer "c" often.