El-Erian Says Data Shows US Recession Can Still Be Averted

The transcript discusses the probability of a recession, emphasizing that it is not inevitable and can be averted. It highlights the impact of inflation on vulnerable populations and the importance of maintaining economic strength. The conversation also debates the appropriateness of the 2% inflation target, suggesting a potential shift to a 3-4% target due to changing economic conditions.

What is the speaker's stance on the probability of a recession?

• The speaker believes there is a 100% chance of recession.

• The speaker argues against a 100% probability of recession.

• The speaker is unsure about the probability of recession.

• The speaker thinks recession is impossible.

Why does the speaker emphasize maintaining economic strength?

• To ensure higher interest rates.

• To decrease government spending.

• To protect vulnerable populations from income insecurity.

• To increase inflation rates.

What does the speaker suggest about the 2% inflation target?

• It should be increased to 5-6%.

• It should be maintained at 2%.

• It should be completely disregarded.

• It might be more suitable to aim for 3-4%.

What are the reasons given for potentially adjusting the inflation target to 3-4%?

• The supply side is changing and 2% is closer to the zero bound than expected.

• 2% is too far from the zero bound.

• The supply side is stable and requires no changes.

• There are no reasons given.

What is the speaker's prediction about future inflation rates?

• Inflation will decrease to 1-2%.

• Inflation will stabilize at 3-4%.

• Inflation will increase to 5-6%.

• Inflation will remain unpredictable.