WorksheetsOM - Module 02 Reviewer - Forecasting
Total questions: 57
Worksheet time: 29mins
These are basic input in the decision processes of operations management because they provide information on future demand.
Forecasts
Seasonal Forecasts
Exponential Smoothing
Trend
Numerical value that is multiplied by the normal forecast to get a seasonally adjusted forecast.
Seasonal Forecast
Naive Forecast
Judgmental Forecast
Time-series Forecast
A sum of the forecast errors; also known as bias.
Cumulative Error
Mean Square Error
Average Error
Forecast Error
How far into the future something is forecasted.
Seasonal Forecast
Trend
Time Frame
Delphi Method
An exponential smoothing forecast adjusted for trend.
Moving Forecast
Exponential Smoothing
Trend
Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
The average of the squared forecast errors.
Mean Square Error (MSE)
Mean Absolute Percent Deviation (MAPD)
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Average Forecast
The absolute forecast error measured as a percentage of demand.
Mean Square Error (MSE)
Mean Absolute Percent Deviation (MAPD)
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Average Forecast
The cumulative error averaged over the number of time periods.
Cumulative Error
Average Error
Mean Square Error
Forecast Error
A gradual, long-term up or down movement of demand.
Forecasts
Seasonal Forecasts
Exponential Smoothing
Trend
A mathematical relationship that relates a dependent variable to two or more independent variables.
Linear Regression
Multiple Regression
Correlation
Not Stated
Procedure for acquiring informed judgments and opinions from knowledgeable individuals to use as a subjective forecast
Delphi Method
Forecast
Exponential Smoothing
Time Frame
This forecast is a sophisticated weighted averaging method that creates a new forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the difference between that forecast and the actual value of the series at that point.
Moving Average
Weighted Moving Average
Exponential Smoothing
Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
This forecast uses a number of the most recent actual data values in generating a forecast, however, it assigns more weight to more recent values.
Moving Average
Weighted Moving Average
Exponential Smoothing
Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
This kind of forecast uses a number of the most recent acutal data values in generating a forecast.
Moving Average
Weighted Moving Average
Exponential Smoothing
Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
These techniques can generate forecasts that reflect recent values of a time series.
Averaging Techniques
Forecasting Techniques
Analytical Techniques
Problem Solving Techniques
This forecast uses a single precious value of a time series as the basis of a forecast.
Seasonal Forecast
Judgmental Forecast
Naive Forecast
Time-series Forecast
These are residual variations that remain after all other behaviors have been accounted for.
Trend
Seasonality
Cycles
Irregular Variations
Random Variations
These are due to unusual or unforeseen circumstances and do not reflect the typical behavior.
Trend
Seasonality
Cycles
Irregular Variations
Random Variations
These are wavelike variations of more than one year's duration.
Trend
Seasonality
Cycles
Irregular Variations
Random Variations
This refers to short-term, fairly regular variations generally related to factors such as the calendar or time of day.
Trend
Seasonality
Cycles
Irregular Variations
Random Variations
This refers to a long-term upward or downward movement in the data.
Trend
Seasonality
Cycles
Irregular Variations
Random Variations
This is a time-ordered sequence of observations taken at regular intervals.
Time Series
Cumulative Observation
Forecast
Time Frame
These use equations that consist of one or more explanatory variables that can be used to predict demand.
Qualitative Methods
Quantitative Methods
Judgmental Forecasts
Time-series Forecasts
Associative Models
These use historal data with the assumption that the future will be like the past, so basically it attempts to project experience into the future.
Qualitative Methods
Quantitative Methods
Judgmental Forecasts
Time-series Forecasts
Associative Models
These rely on analysis of susbjective inputs obtained from various sources, wherein these sources provide insights that are not otherwise available.
Qualitative Methods
Quantitative Methods
Judgmental Forecasts
Time-series Forecasts
Associative Models
These involve either the projection of historical data or the development of associative models that attempt to utilize variables to make a forecast.
Qualitative Methods
Quantitative Methods
Judgmental Forecasts
Time-series Forecasts
Associative Models
These consist mainly of subjective inputs, which often defy precise numerical descriptions.
Qualitative Methods
Quantitative Methods
Judgmental Forecasts
Time-series Forecasts
Associative Models
These consists mainly of subjective inputs, which often defy precise numerical descriptions.
Qualitative Methods
Quantitative Methods
Judgmental Forecasts
Time-series Forecasts
Associative Models
What formula is this?
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
Mean Squared Error (MSE)
What formula is this?
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Mean Squared Error (MSE)
Mean Absolute Percent Error
What formula is this?
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Mean Squared Error (MSE)
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
It is based on the historical error performance of a forecast.
Forecast Accuracy
Positive Errors
Negative Errors
Forecast Error
This is a significant factor when deciding among forecasting alternatives.
Forecast Accuracy
Positive Error
Negative Error
Forecast Error
These result when the forecast is too high.
Forecast Accuracy
Positive Error
Negative Error
Forecast Error
These results when the forecast is too low.
Forecast Accuracy
Positive Error
Negative Error
Forecast Error
This is solved as Actual value minus Forecasted value.
Error
Trend
Time Frame
Accuracy
This refers to the difference between the value that occurs and the value that was predicted for a given period.
Forecast Accuracy
Positive Error
Negative Error
Forecast Error
________ and _______ of forecasts are vital aspects of forecasting.
Accuracy
Control
Errors
Time Frame
Give 1 variation of continuous replenishment.
(a)
This is typically managed by the supplier wherein the supplier and customer share continuously updated data.
Continuous Inventory
Continuous Management
Continuous Relationship
Continuous Replenishment
This can lead to the reduction of inventory for the company and the speeding up of customer delivery.
Continuous Inventory
Continuous Management
Continuous Relationship
Continuous Replenishment
These determine inventory levels in the supply chain.
Accurate Forecast
Inaccurate Forecast
Supply Chain Forecast
Inventory Forecast
These are very important for the supply chain.
Accurate Forecast
Inaccurate Forecast
Supply Chain Forecast
Inventory Forecast
These can lead to shortages and excesses throughout the supply chain.
Accurate Forecast
Inaccurate Forecast
Supply Chain Forecast
Inventory Forecast
Element of a good forecast that states that the benefits should outweigh the costs.
Cost-effective
Simple to Understand and Use
In Writing
Expressed in Meaningful Units
Reliable
Element of a good forecast that refers to the forecasts in aspect of usage.
Cost-effective
Simple to Understand and Use
In Writing
Expressed in Meaningful Units
Reliable
Element of a good forecast that refers to the state of the forecast that will permit an objective basis for evaluating the forecast once actual results are in.
Cost-effective
Simple to Understand and Use
In Writing
Expressed in Meaningful Units
Reliable
Element of a good forecast that refers to the choice of units in which fits the user needs.
In Writing
Expressed in Meaningful Units
Reliable
Accurate
Timely
Element of a good forecast that refers to a forecast being able to work consistently.
In Writing
Expressed in Meaningful Units
Reliable
Accurate
Timely
Element of a good forecast that refers to the degree of accuracy being stated.
In Writing
Expressed in Meaningful Units
Reliable
Accurate
Timely
Element of a good forecast that refers to a certain amount of time that is needed to respond to the information in which a forecast provides.
In Writing
Expressed in Meaningful Units
Reliable
Accurate
Timely
These affect decisions and activites throughout an organization, in accounting, finance, human resources, marketing, and management information systems (MIS).
Forecasts
Human Emotion
Ergonomics
Technology
These are the basis for budgeting, planning capacity, sales, production and inventory, personnel, purchasing, and more.
Operations Management
Forecasts
Historical Data
Constraints
Aspect of Forecasts that is a function of the ability of forecasters to correctly model demand, random variation, and sometimes unforeseen events.
Degree of Accuracy
Degree of Demand
Expected Level of Accuracy
Expected Level of Demand
Aspect of forecasts that is a function of some structural variation, such as a trend or seasonal variation.
Degree of Accuracy
Degree of Demand
Expected Level of Accuracy
Expected Level of Demand
What is the primary goal of operations management?
Ensure that the company is headed in the right direction
To match supply to demand
Keep inventory levels in check
Ensure that no losses are incurred
The importance of forecasting to operations management cannot be __________.
Overstated
Understated
Ignored
Overachieved
