Forecasting

The following are the 3 types of participants involved in a Delphi forecasting model, except?

• Decision makers

• Staff personnel

• Respondents

• Decision personnel

It is a type of qualitative forecasting model wherein each salesperson estimates sales in his/her region, which will be reviewed and combined to reach an overall forecast.

• 1. Delphi Method

• Jury of executive opinion

• Sales force composite

• Consumer market survey

This scatter diagram shows which components of time-series?

(multiple correct answers)

• Trend

• Seasonal

• Cyclical

• Random

Grace is analyzing the accuracy of her sales forecasts for the upcoming quarter. She is considering various methods to measure the accuracy of her predictions. The following are methods she is looking at, except?

• Mean Absolute Deviation

• Exponential Smoothing

• Mean Squared Error

• Mean Absolute Percent Error

Which of the following statements is correct?

I. Increasing the size of n does smooth out fluctuations better, but it makes the method less sensitive to real changes in data.

II. Moving averages cannot pick up trends very well since averages usually go past the previous levels.

• Only statement I is correct

• Only statement II is correct

• Both statements are correct

• Both statements are incorrect

Choosing weights obviously has an important impact on the forecast. Which of the following statements about the ways to choose the correct weights are incorrect?

I. Calculate the MAD for various combinations of weights, then select the weights that result in the lowest MAD.

II. The best weights can be found by using linear programming.

• Only Statement I is correct

• Only Statement II is correct

• Both statements are correct

• None of the statements are correct

Assume that you have tried three different forecasting models. For the first, MAD = 2.5, for the second, MSE = 10.5, for the third, MAPE = 2.7. We can say that?

• MAD is the best

• MSE is the best

• MAPE is the best

• None of the above

Which is true?

I. Qualitative model attempts to incorporate judgmental or subjective factors into the forecasting model.

II Qualitative models produce forecast that are little better than simple guess or toss coin

• Statement 1

• Statement II

• Both statements

• Neither of the statements

A seasonal index of _ indicates that the season is average

• 100

• 1

• 0

• 1.1

a tracking signal was calculated for a particular set of demand forecasts. This tracking signal was positive. This would indicate that?

• Demand is greater than forecast

• Demand is less than forecast

• Demand is equal to forecast

• Nothing